Exposing the myth of linear SaaS revenue growth (and how to achieve exponential growth for your SaaS)

“Exponential SaaS growth is impossible. All SaaS growth is linear.”

“It takes a long, long time to grow a SaaS and you must be prepared for a slow, steady climb to your MRR goal.”

Today is the day you’re going to learn that the above statements are totally incorrect.

Over the last few years, SaaS has become the de facto business model for solopreneurs and B2B entrepreneurs looking to create bootstrappable companies that can grow profitable over time — whether with or without funding.

The SaaS business model has been touted for its ability to standardize monthly recurring revenue, and there is general consensus on the capital role churn plays in the SaaS equation; where high churn will inevitably kill a SaaS company.

Why churn is important for SaaS

You can’t grow a SaaS business if the revenue you work hard to acquire leaks away a few short months after being acquired.

In venture-funded SaaS, there’s this idea that you’re going to spend a bunch of money on day 0 (cost of customer acquisition) knowing how long it should approximately take for you to break-even (and start becoming totally profitable on that customer).

But if your customer is churning (re: unsubscribing, leaving) before they’ve paid you back, you’re going to get into trouble.

Worse, if your customer churns soon after signing up, that’s an indicator that your product isn’t well positioned to answer a pain or that the wrong type of customers are signing up for your SaaS.

What churn causes to a SaaS business

The big headline is that churn is going to slow down your growth rate. When you calculate how much net revenue you make each month, you take your MRR and subtract it by the revenue lost to churn that month.

So if I start the month with 100 customers, acquire 50 customers during the month but lose 30, I end the month at 120 customers. But my churn rate is 30%! It means one third of my entire customer base left on that month.

Luckily, we’re acquiring more customers, but you can see how this would reduce your ability to grow faster.

Fine, so we want to reduce churn. That’s where this all leads us.

Conventionally dealing with churn

Generally, there’s this confusing idea that “churn is inevitable”. I think that’s fair to assume that up to 1% or two of your userbase might choose to walk away each month. Granted you are at least growing a little bit, that churn should be negligible. So churn itself is inevitable.

As a young startup, it is common to experience high churn. Your product is young, you’re still figuring out who your customer is, and there’s time ahead to be spent on honing in against those parameters. But the error comes once that honing in happens. People look at the churn, hunch their shoulders and say “well, churn is inevitable.”

Sure, every growth marketer looking at churn will decide to take action against it (usually in the form of customer success or by looking at how the product is used). But this comfortable thinking that having churn is going to be a reality moving forward seriously bothers me.

So here’s the higher resolution picture on this.

Negative churn is the real goal

Let’s take a hypothetical SaaS business.

Its business model is generic — it offers a free offering (in the form of a trial or other) which then has some conversion rate to a subscription.

The funnel looks something like this:

  • Visitor hits the home page
  • Choose to start a free trial (or free account)
  • Eventually, some % of the free users end up converting to the paid subscription
  • Some customers eventually churn.

Sounds about right? Let’s say the company is at $10K MRR right now and is adding $4K MRR every month from its organic efforts, Not bad!

We’ll take our earlier example, where the churn rate is 30%. As a reminder, this is calculated by looking at the total amount of revenue lost by the end of the month divided by the total number of active subscribers at the beginning of the month. At 30%, that means that for every 10 users you have at the start of the month, 3 will leave over the course of that month.

And this is the result.The effect of 30% churn on a 10K MRR business

“What the heck?”

If your business is growing linearly, that goes to say that every single month, it brings in $4,000 in new revenue, but you lose 30% of the users you have at the beginning of the month, the growth rate gets totally squished.

In fact, the revenue eventually caps out at around 13.5K MRR because of that churn. And from there, the only way to make the business grow again, is either by adding more revenue (which is hard) or by making your product and customer success effect work to reduce the number of people who choose to part ways with your software.

How do you solve churn?

Now this is an interesting question you’re going to get a lot of different answers to.

The first go-to answer, which is correct, is to focus on product. Is your product actually useful? Is it responding to the customers’ pain adequately, consistently and creating value for the customers such that the expense of your product is far and beyond under the return granted by its use?

The second response relates to the customer: “it’s not the right customer.” This can also be true, the idea of product/market fit kills thousands of startups a year. There is little sense in spending a year creating a product without ever interacting with your intended user.

But those are two large topics I’m expecting you already have some responsibility over.

So for the sake of the article, let’s assume your product is in fact quite good and that you’ve found the right market to offer it to. The market is accepting your product to solve their problem, but they are still churning. Then what?

Customer success is one of the super powers of SaaS. There’s little doubt now of the power of on-boarding. Ensuring your customers are actually successful in using your product to create value for themselves and their businesses is the cornerstone of low churn, and it insinuates good product/market fit.

Customer success usually revolves around the way people use your product and ensuring they take the actions required for them to perceive value from your software. Applications like Intercom.io make customer success highly sophisticated by automating the process of reaching out to your customers while they’re using your product with assets to help move them further down the path of success.

Customer Success is not a magic pill

Here’s where things get a little hazy.

As a marketer, your reliance on customer success grants you the comfort that low-hanging fruits are being picked: that we are tracking our users and how they use our product and helping them reach their goals ourselves with quality messaging support and knowledge banks for self-service.

But at the end of the day, we’re still comfortable at the idea that at least some churn will remain. Inevitably.

The truth is that customer success on its own is not enough to get past the ticking bomb that is churn. Some other force needs to be at work to help you pad that effort.

What is that force, you ask?

Customer Upgrades are the major 🔑

Beyond the fact that upgrades, also know as upsells and cross-sells, dramatically increase your lifetime value and increase your cost of acquisition ceiling, they do something far, far more powerful that that:

Revenue expansion counteracts the effects of churn.

Read that again, out loud.

Revenue expansion counteracts the effects of churn.

If users who subscribe to your service — that is, free users who become paying customers — have an additional path to sales, you’ll be able to grow LTV. Even better, if you can make sure that path relates to their success over time, you’ll ensure exponential revenue growth across your user base.

Here’s the way to look at this information:

As mentioned at the start of the article, most SaaS businesses offer this Pro subscription type of offering. Sometimes the offering is tiered into 2, 3 or more packages.

This represents a unidimensional way for the SaaS to achieve revenue; where the user subscribes, and then the SaaS bills the user relative to their plan every month thereafter (until churn). That’s where linear growth comes from.

Upgrades allow SaaS business models to become multidimensional, because while the customer is subscribing to a Pro account to gain access to additional value-added features, he is also being billed relative to the capacity of their account, where as the capacity grows (from being successful with the product), additional funds are billed.

You can intuitively get a picture of this with something like HubSpot.

HubSpot charges you, say, $500/mo to access the software’s full feature set. Included in this feature set is the ability to manage subscribers, send emails and so forth. A successful HubSpot user will see a growing number of emails sent or subscribers being added to the CRM.

Consequently, HubSpot created a second dimension to their billing by also billing users based on how contacts they have in their database. When you pass 2,000 contacts, you enter a new billing amount, and so on.

Exponential SaaS Revenue From Negative Churn

This second dimension which introduces the idea of revenue expansion  is what causes exponential revenue growth to skyrocket, because your product is successful at making users successful, which causes your customer to be billed additionally while being totally OK with it because they’re getting the same relative value over time against that spend. If I’m OK with spending $1K in exchange for $5K, I’m also OK with spending $2K to make $10K. And so on.

Remember:

Revenue expansion counteracts the effects of churn.

So if your customers are becoming more and more successful over time, it is reasonable to see that a SaaS that is growing linearly will start to see more and more of its revenue coming from upgrades, rather than from its regular trickle of new customers.

And the key is for the revenue coming in from expansions to match or overshadow the revenues lost from churn.

Now for the money question:

What happens when revenue expansion outpaces churn?

You get exponential growth:

When expansion revenue outpaces churn, you get exponential revenue

Instead of flatlining at 13K, your SaaS is able to grow even faster because (1) its churn is gone and (2) you get an extra growth boost from the additional revenue coming from upgrades, whom in term shuts down the effects of your churn while padding the needed revenue to grow faster than linearly.

How to engineer negative churn

Reaching the point of negative churn is a multiple-step scenario. First and foremost, do the “just fix it” tasks. Get your product in order. Get your market in order. Get your customer success set up.

Then look at the churn rate and contemplate just how hard the negative pressure it is applying affects your SaaS.

Generally, you want to aim for 1%-2% monthly churn. That is really hard to do without upgrades. What will happen is you’ll see churn ranging from 5% to 20% across a variety of SaaS. Just to make it clear, If you’ve got a 5% monthly churn rate… that means that if you acquired 1,000 customers over the year, you’ll have lost the equivalent of 600 of those over that year, stifling the size of your business by over 2.5x – not good!

Once you reach a “stable” churn rate, start to engineer pricing changes that align with the way your customers use your product:

  • Use value-based pricing for your core subscription offer (i.e. the Pro subscription tiers).
  • Use capacity-based pricing for your upgrades (i.e. number of emails send)

You should end up with a multi-dimensional billing model which bills additionally based on users’ growth inside of your product, while capturing actual customers by provided value-added “pro” features.

Once you’ve reached the point of multidimensional pricing, the revenue generated from the expansion revenue will go to war against the revenue lost to churn. From there, you should aim to get to 1% or so. If you’re really gunning for exponential results though, you’ll continue to fight until the revenue you make from expansions outpaces the revenue lost to churn. Queue exponential growth. 🚀

The Referral Playbook To Get 35% More Typeform Responses In Just 30 Minutes

If you’ve ever put together a survey, you know Typeform really have their shit together.

This week, I’m helping my wife with her Cake My Bake customer development survey. She’s trying to reach bakers and get them to complete a survey.

The goal is to drive qualified Facebook Ads traffic to her Typeform using a Sweepstakes offer. You fill the survey and get an entry.

We locked the budget at $500, with $250 of it going to the prize. Aiming for 200 responses and a completion rate of 30%, she’ll need 650+ visits to fill her quota. She’s comfortable with a cost of $2.50 per complete survey, but I think the sweepstakes offer should deliver stronger performance — plus, it opens up a great way to activate the following she’s been building on Instagram.

Her budget of $250 would require a CPC of about $0.38 — which isn’t bad, but definitely not great. If she doesn’t get the cold audience targeting right, she’ll completely miss her mark.

A really useful tool in this circumstance would be to add referral functionality in the backend: when a user completes the survey, to have them refer additional visitors in exchange for more entries. That way, the referral program artificially deflates the cost of acquisition by organically bringing in additional survey entries.

Ideally I’d send them to a separate landing page, but that creates far too much effort.

So I came up with a smart workaround and hacked together a pretty good referral mechanism.

Step 1: Set up a typeform account

Make sure to go to www.typeform.com, not typeform.io — the latter is the API website. If you don’t have a Pro account – get one. It might be $35/mo, but you’ll come across as an amateur if your survey doesn’t contain any logic, ends abruptly or doesn’t follow up with your respondents.

You can always cancel after your survey is over, but in my experience Typeform comes in super handy for a variety of use cases (think: Stripe integration)

Step 2: Create your Typeform survey and make sure to ask for an email address

Create a typeform survey with an email field

You might be running a survey for a variety of reasons, from asking for a Net Promoter Score to Customer Development (like in this case) or even to sell.

Just make sure you ask for an email if the survey respondents are going to be cold traffic, otherwise the cost your incur to buy the traffic (or the energy and manpower spent) will go to waste. Always optimize for lead capture.

With the email in place, we’re going to start actually implementing the barebones for the referral program.

Using Typeform’s Zapier integration, we’re going to set up a Mailchimp zap which creates a new list subscriber everytime someone completes a Typeform submission.

Step 3: Set up a Mailchimp list & merge tag

You’ll need a Mailchimp account — you can do this with another email service provider as long as there’s a Zapier integration for it and as long as the ESP has merge tag functionality. That’s going to be a key factor.

Once you’re set up, create a dedicated list for your survey respondents.

When your list is ready, access the Merge Tags page for it. You can navigate to it by returning to the Lists dashboard, choosing your list’s Settings and then List Fields and *|MERGE|* Tags.

In Mailchimp, access the list settings of your list

Click on the Merge Tag link to access your merge tags.

Create the marge tag for the referrer's email

This merge tag will be used to keep track of Referrer emails on Google Analytics. Later on, we’ll create an autoresponder which uses the referrer’s email in the link back to the survey.

With Mailchimp ready to go, return to Typeform to set up the Zap.

Step 4: Create a Zap: Mailchimp subscriber each time a Typeform submission is completed

In your Typeform’s Configure tab, navigate to the Integrations in the sub menu. We’ll be setting up the zap directly from Typeform.

You’ll notice Typeform suggests a few “popular zaps”. Lucky for us, we’re using one on the list. Choose the Zap to create Mailchimp subscribers from Typeform entries.

Select from the popular zaps to create a subscriber for each Typeform entry

When you click on “Use this Zap”, a new window should pop up. Click on “Create this Zap”

Create the zap

Log into your Zapier account until you get to the Typeform Trigger. You can Continue from there.

Click on continue

You’ll need to select a Typeform account. If you’ve never added one, simply choose to “Connect a New Account”. For this to work, you’ll need your Typeform account’s API key.

Typeform API Key

You can find it by following this link.

Once the account is added, make sure to test the connection is good, then continue.

Test the account to make sure the connection is good.

The next step is to actually select the survey you’ll be setting up a Zap for.

Keep the string of text next to the name of your Typeform survey

You’ll notice a string of text next to the name of your survey. Keep this handy. It’ll be useful later for identifying your survey traffic on Google Analytics.

You’ll be required to test the Typeform by fetching an existing entry. That means you need to make sure that you’ve filled out your own survey at least once. Ensure the email field isn’t empty!

Once you’re good there, click on Fetch & Continue. When you see the notice for the successful test, it’s time move on to defining the actual Zap.

We’ll be using the Create > Add/Update Subscriber function since it helps us put people into a Mailchimp list — as long as there’s an email field–and it isn’t empty, it will work.

Select your Mailchimp account in the next step. Once again, if you haven’t yet, connect your Mailchimp account. This one is just a login sequence, so you won’t need to create a new API key in your Mailchimp account.

On the following window, you’ll be asked to Set Up Mailchimp Subscriber. Basically, this is the template that Zapier will use to move information from Typeform into Mailchimp.

What this means for us is that you’ll want to identify the question you created in your survey which asks the user for its email. In my survey, that question sounds like “Thanks for answering, enter your email below”.

If you’ve got many questions in your survey, you’ll need to scroll down through each of them. In the “Subscriber Email” field, click on the button to expand the select box and choose the question.

Choose the email question after clicking on the expand button

Be careful on this page. Remember the merge tag we set up?

If you click on “Show advanced options” you’ll expand the option needed to link the merge tag.

Do NOT add the email question in the Advanced Options

Do not add the merge tag to the Referrer Email field. This will confuse Zap and you don’t need to do this.

We’re only going to be using the Merge tag in our email template when setting up our referral URL. Once you’re done, click on Continue.

We’re nearly there!

You might run into an error screen. Make sure you followed the steps properly.

You might run into this screen. If that happens, make sure you’ve got at least one response to the survey, and don’t use the email field more than once in the template.

If everything is kosher, you’ll see a clear “Test Mailchimp” page. Otherwise, you might see a field highlighted in red. If that happens, go back to previous steps and follow them to the letter. 🙂

At this point, the zap should be set up. You might find a short delay between the moment the survey is completed and the subscriber is created. Don’t panic.

Step 5: Setup the Mailchimp email template

Before working on the automation, create a simple email template. It can be as simple or as pretty as you like. Sometimes, text-only works best. In this case, I set up something on-brand.

There are two main elements to play with here, both of which rely on the merge tag we set up earlier:

  1. Creating a “personal referral link”; and
  2. Prepopulating social sharing icons for the user with their referral link.

Setting up #1 is simple — link to your survey and add a link parameter (?r=) at the end of the link. I chose r= because it’s simple, but you can get as creative with this as you like. You’ll be referencing this r= later on in Google Analytics when you segment your traffic.

It will be crystal clear how many conversions came from which referrers, as you’ll see the email of your referrers directly in the ?r= part of the link the referred users came from.

Add the referrer email merge tag to the link in the email.

For #2, you’ll want to set up pre-populated sharing links. For this specific email, I just set it up with Twitter and Facebook. Feel free to add more if you like. I suggest using a service like ShareLinkGenerator to quickly spin up the URLs you need.

Just make sure to add the ?r=*|REF_EMAIL|* part so that the person receiving the email has a link with their own email as the referrence.

Step 6: Setup the Mailchimp autoresponder

Once the Zap is done and the template is ready, we’re going to go back to Mailchimp to set up the autoresponder to be sent for the referral invitation.

This is the part where choosing a different email service provider might cause some difficulty. If there’s a Zap for it though, you should be clear to go.

Log into your Mailchimp account and navigate to the Automation tab. Note this is a premium feature. Pretty sure Mailchimp is $10/mo.

Scroll down the list of automations until you find date-based options. They’re in pink. You want to set up an automation based on “list added date”.

Choose the automation based on the date the subscriber was added to the list.

Add the automation and call it something descriptive like “Referral Request.”

You’ll want to set up at least one email using the template you set up. Write basic copy that compels your referrer to share your offer out. I decided to set up a second reminder email to be sent 3 days after completing the survey just to add an extra nudge.

There’s much to gain from experimenting how much more benefit can be had from adding more email reminders. The folks at MaitreApp.co have proven this works.

Set up the email autoresponder

Step 7: Use Google Analytics to keep track of your referrals

I won’t get into the nitty-gritty of using Analytics this time around, but if you’ve set up your link parameters correctly, you’ll start seeing the traffic coming in with their respective referral emails. Let me know in the comments below if you have trouble doing it and I’ll happily add an extra section below.

You'll see the referrer email in the link in Google Analyics

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